Has Heller lost his mojo?
And will Reid’s puppet beat Bush’s puppet in Nevada’s third?
Dean Heller — for all his big-name, big-money supporters all about the state — seems to be losing a bit of steam in his campaign for Nevada’s second congressional seat. Eighteen months ago, he was the prohibitive front-runner. The three-term secretary of state had used his lifetime in office — and the connections that came with it — to mount a campaign that could have been very successful. Sure, Dawn Gibbons was going to run, everybody knew that Jim’s triumphant return to Nevada would surely mean her speedy departure — but she wasn’t really a threat to Heller. Nobody took Dawn Gibbons seriously; Heller supporters would remark about Dawn’s erratic behavior with an underhanded quip and a sneer.
Things have changed for Heller, who seems to be facing an uphill battle against… himself. He’s not managed to poll ahead of Dawn Gibbons in any published poll — he barely comes close. Meanwhile, Angle’s “club for growth” has been attacking him (and Dawn) by calling him (rightfully…sorta) a big-taxing liberal.
And a while back we were at an event, chatting with a Derby supporter in Las Vegas (a flaw of Derby’s campaign is the sheer number of suporters she has in a city that’s not in her district), who suggested, and we try to quote from memory, “Heller may just prove too much of a Democrat to compete in the Republican primary.”
Heller’s fundraising is also lagging as he climbs the steps to the contentious primary. This quarter, he raised about $131,000 — less than anybody else running in his district. Gibbons beat him by about $60,000. And Derby — who can seem to do no wrong (we’ll see how much longer this lasts) — raised twice as much as he did. Again, Derby beat all of the republicans in the race.
And while Derby has captivated the radio market, and Angle is going strong on TV, Heller is on the defensive. He put up radio ads, lashing out at Angle and Gibbons — with little fanfare. Heller also went up on TV, but his ads are… well, not good. They’re over-polished or under-polished or… well, they’re just not interesting. They fail to captivate any attention. And this strikes a sharp contrast with Angle’s grainty, handycam-shot biopieces, and Derby’s folksy FM charmers.
Heller’s got to get it together — he may be the best shot a reasonable person has to be represented in Nevada’s second district (we’re still unconvinced of Derby’s election-day viability). If he doesn’t, he should drop out now and start stumping for the Democrat — at the very least.
MEANWHILE, BACK HOME Tessa Hafen outperformed expectations again by raising …. some money. We can’t tell if Porter raised $278,000 this quarter, like his FEC report says — or just over $500,000 like the AP reports. Hey, Porter people, e-mail us with a heads-up… everybody else has us on their press list, why don’t you?
Presuming the FEC’s site is right, and the Sun is wrong (GASP), then Porter was actually bested by Hafen for the first time. Sure, he’s banked a lot more money than she has — he’s the incumbent and it would be really embarrassing if he didn’t (just ask Valerie Weber) — but Porter’s supporters may not be seeing the results they want and expect from their candidate. To compound Porter’s woes, Hafen’s got a registration momentum at her back: Democrats now hold a 1,200 vote edge in the district.
We’ve always said Nevada voters aren’t party-liners, but will Little Reid Riding Hood be able to keep the wind at her back to turn it into her advantage? She seems to be able to stie Porter to everything bad to happen in Nevada, ever… Porter should be preparing to hit her, as he did Tom Gallagher before her, for moving home just to run for Congress. This hit in the guy will follow up with Reid, Reid, Reid — everything negative that’s been in the papers about Reid since he took over the hot seat for the Senate Dems will be connected to Hafen. Since they’re the same person, this won’t be tough.
If Hafen can deflect the heat, then she has a real shot at the district. And if not, then she’s just some kid who ran for congress that one time. Maybe she can take over her dad’s seat on the Henderson Council. Or serve in the Gibson administration.
Similar Posts:
Enjoy this post? Leave a comment below or subscribe to my feed. You also can sign up for email delivery by clicking here.
Its like we’re living in some kind of alternative Gibbons ruled universe where almost all the citizens have lobotomies and the rest of use are have to work underground. All you need is the name and you’re set. Isnt that a Kurt Vonnegut book?
I think the tide may have turned for Dawn Gibbons after being selected for the hottest politicians contest…she lost of course but being labeled luke warm probably helps.
I thought if you were a reasonable good looking guy in Nevada, you were pretty much assured to win. WTF?
Derby has a chunk of the Las Vegas area in CD2 - including almost all of Sun City Anthem (for better or worse)
Speaking of reasonably good looking, Minx, check out Heller’s web site. He seems to have packed on a little pudge over the past year or two. This isn’t the sort of thing we’d typically talk about, but Heller ought to thank his lucky stars that he still has his hair, or he’d start to look like Bob Beers.
It looks like the true beneficiary of Angle’s ad blitz is going to be gibbons. I wonder if Angle will end up regretting that?
Hold the phone—I just saw Heller’s ad (and then Titus’). I love the image the Heller campaign found of Angle–she looks like she’s tsk tsking someone while she’s spending whatever money they just claimed she did in the ad. Its gotta be a tough bind for Heller. He’s trying to fight both of them in the same ad. And the Heller campaign found the hottest picture of Gibbons possible for the ad–big mistake. I didnt even recognize her after starring at the image on her billboard off of HWY 395 for the last three months. Shouldn’t the goal be to find the worst looking image of your opponent? And Gibbons has an ad up on Inside Nevada Politics which flashes the words “SECURE BORDERS.” Nice.
The crew at battlebornnews.com are certainly after him, but I guess they’re probably Angles’s men. All of this spells good news for Derby.
Jill Derby is the right person at the right time. When the Republican knife fight is over she’ll be there to offer reason and a generations-long family connection and understanding of northern Nevada and the area’s unique needs.
What, exactly, does having a “generations-long family connection” have to do with your ability to govern? Now, I’m not saying it’s okay for a carpetbagger to come in here and try to, say, win a seat representing Nevada in the Senate, but these people touting on fifth generation Nevadaism seem to be playing to the guilt of recent California transplants or something. It’s just marketing garbage and doesn’t add to the honest discourse in any real way.
Dude, you cant have it both ways. Neither approach as a voter makes sense. What makes sense is for the best candidate to win–why penalize someone for only living here a few years (as long as they didnt move here exclusively to run for office)?
I also hate the term carpetbagger because it has all these old south connotations. If that’s someonone’s reason for not voting for Carter, then, well, I honestly don’t know what to say except you must really believe that corporations needs all the help they can get and religious institutions should have no accountablity. Two of Ensigns favorite constituentcies.
I just don’t understand that kind of thinking. Just like I wouldnt give Derby a pass just because her family’s been here forever.
That’s exactly my point. Calling one candidate one thing while touting your credentials on another is marketing BS. None of it should be believed or even counted. Here comes the but. BUT, I do think that if it’s about having a good idea of what it means to live in a state. Like I said in the other thread, if you haven’t even lived here long enough to have voted against your opponent last time he ran for the seat you seek, take a breather and run next time. If we’re completely willing to overlook that in a candidate, what’s the point of state borders. Why not just have a 1-100 ballot and elect the 100 most “qualified” senators in the country?
We at MMP would suggest that the generations-long family connection will play well. It may not be policy-oriented, but mentioning the connection, Jerz, doesn’t stop the Derby campaign from talking about the issues.
It seems like they’re trying to use the generations-long connection as a foot in the door. Nevada’s 2nd isn’t exactly known for its liberalism and she needs a credential that will mean something to the folks who’ve lived here the longest.
Sure, it’s marketing “BS,” but it’s also smart to bring it up. Shared heritage is powerful stuff, and if it gets even a handful of republicans whose families have been there forever to listen to Derby’s message, which is almost certainly well, then good for them.
We haven’t made up our minds in the Senate race. But we’ll use the term “opportunist” if it doesn’t conjur up the same imagery for Myrna. Our reason to not vote for him so far (but again, we haven’t made up our minds): he’d be eaten alive in the Senate. He can’t put together a staff of any acumen (but his dad was president), he can’t seem to raise a competitive amount (but his dad was president) and the highlight of his career in public service heretofore: getting kicked out of the Navy (but his dad was president).
Being the nice guy who finished last does not a Senator make. Being his son, then, is certainly not a credential.
We understand your frustration with Ensign, Minx. As a Senator, he hasn’t represented many of the values that we stand for — and his prayer circles with Sam Brownback freak us out a little. But we’re tired of the unintellectual liberal slam against republicans for supporting corporations. Large mines, large casinos and large ranches employ a LOT of Nevadans; we’d be at a loss to have a Senator that didn’t.
If that’s the case then do we limit who can vote, too? Do you have to wait four years after you’ve moved in from California to vote in an election in Nevada? And, wait four years after you’ve received US citizenship to vote in a presidential election?
Points taken MMP….I just need to see people representing me who I feel actually represent my interests and not those of the telecoms, shareholders (he votes with them 90%of the time), the christian coalition, and the family research council. Barf. But he likes kittens.
What does “shareholders (he votes with them 90% of the time)” mean?
Do you mean the people that actually own the companies, the people who have stock holdings, mutual fund holdings, IRAs, pensions and 401(k)s. Or, in other words, the vast majority of Americans.
On another note, a recent Chuck Muth poll had Heller up by double digits with Angle and Gibbons virtually tied at under 16%. Over 40% undecided, which is still large, but a movement for Heller on previous polls.
This poll was an automated phone survey with a +/-4%.
Derek, you’ll forgive us if — like anything ol’ Chuckles does — we don’t give a lot of credence to the poll data. Muth is a man who got lucky with an autodialer; and autodial polls are notoriously skewed. If we had put faith in autodialers, Kerry would have won Texas in 2004.
That’s true. Automated is barely above the web poll in respectability, but it is interesting that Angle, whom I presume Muth is supporting, has consistently done poorly in Muth’s polls.
Its an association…American Shareholders Association. That’s what they’d say but one look at the website with headlines about the “activist Department of Justice” and stories promoting private retirement accounts, and donators to the FRee Congress Foundation (http://www.freecongress.org/about/index.asp) tells us what they’re really about. That’s precisely why Ensign likes their positions so much.
I left out that it was in 2004. No ratings for 2005 yet–maybe he’d got it up to 100% like Ted Stevens and Katherine Harris:
http://www.vote-smart.org/issue_rating_detail.php?sig_id=003457M