End of A Conservative Era?

See Nevada UpNorth’s post related to the comments below here.

Andrew Sullivan thinks so and puts the blame squarely on Karl Rove: “The signs are ominous, according to the latest polls. You can download it here (PDF). And you can feel it in the culture. When history is written, I predict Karl Rove will have a major legacy: the creation of a permanent minority party.”

Pew Research provides us with a very interesting look at the past 20 years of the political landscape. Oh, I love longitudinal data. It looks like we can chalk up Bush’s second term largely on the hysteria caused by 9/11 since most of the trend lines have been going increasingly Democratic since 1994. In fact, wasn’t that when Newt last blessed us with his repugnant presence in public office? And he has the balls to even consider running for president? The level of self-delusion is simply breathtaking.

It turns out that we are a nation of godless, big government-loving, homosexual-adoring people–especially you young whippersnappers. The percentage of Independents leaning Democratic is growing at an average of 1% a year. They aren’t converting at break-neck speed, but over time, that 1% adds up to notable Republican losses. The bad news is that this shift is seen more as a Republican loss than a Democratic gain. Reclaiming the discourse of liberal politics could change that–I’m convinced that a lot of people’s fears to align themselves with Democrats or call themselves liberal has been effected by the increasingly hysterical tone of the conservative pundits in the context of post 9/11. What the conservative pundits don’t realize is that the more hysterical they become, the more they are turning Independent voters off. And of course they become more hysterical as they lose more voters and elections. Talk about a vicious cycle. All the more reason for us to help Fox News become an actual news channel however and wherever we can.

Over the past five years, the political landscape of the nation has shifted from one of partisan parity to a sizable Democratic advantage. But the change reflects Republican losses more than Democratic gains. Compared with 2002, Democratic Party identification is up just two points (from 31% to 33%) and has not grown at all since 2004. Republican Party identification, meanwhile, has fallen precipitously, from 29% as recently as 2005 to just 25% in the first quarter of 2007.

The shift that favors the Democratic Party is among independents. The share of Americans who describe themselves as independents who “lean” toward the Democratic Party has gradually risen from 12% in 2002 to 17% in the first quarter of 2007. Meanwhile, the share leaning toward the GOP has dropped, but only slightly (from 13% to 11%). But the survey suggests that even these Democratic gains reflect independents’ dissatisfaction with the Republican Party more than any greater liking for the Democrats.

And the current ideological profile for Nevada reads like this:

Liberal: 27%
Moderate: 50%
Conservative: 21%
Don’t Know: 2%

As always, a big shout-out to survey master Andrew Kohut.

Be sure and read Desert Beacon’s fabulous post on our very own hypocritical senator, John Ensign.

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Harder and harder to be a true repug these days what with the NYT reporting Rudy’s third wife sorta forgot to tell him he’s her third husband, not the second.

btw, what’s Newt gonna do with that $2.1 mil he’s raised in the last few months? If he comes to Reno we need to put a bug on him to see if he goes to the Moonlight Bunny Ranch.

This needs to get read if you want to see just how scary a theocractic state can get when it slides off the edge of the flat earth: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/3/22/105312/088

Our Kinda Guy Award Nomination to Salt Lake City Mayor “Rocky” Anderson: [“President Bush is a war criminal,” Mr. Anderson, a Democrat, said at a rally here on Monday marking the fourth anniversary of the war in Iraq. “Let impeachment be the first step toward national reconciliation — and toward penance for the outrages committed in our nation’s name.”]

A couple of things here. Texex, four straight comments and a link that leads to your “expired” session of Yahoo Mail seal the deal for me. It took time, but I’m officially your biggest fan hopin that every comment thread I see has you outdoing yourself from now on.

Myrna, the study you show was based on polls taken in the time frame, right, or did I misunderstand? My only beef with that is that the polls often actually exaggerate the real difference in public opinion based on election results. While you may identify yourself as a liberal, you might be more likely to vote moderate and many other variations of the same equation. Actions speak louder than words, and all that. My point is that self-identification is pretty unreliable, but someone as dedicated to research as you should know that. There is also the possibility that the perception of the meaning of the words will affect how people respond. If it showed the exact opposite data, you’d probably be saying that “liberal has been so demonized” or something.

Now, having said all of that, there does seem to be a lot to be corrected for conservatives and their movement. Let’s face it, if there aren’t at least two distinct sides in the overall political spectrum, we’ll be on a speedy train to somewhere fast. Like what has happened since the Republican control of both houses and the executive branch, I think it’s safe to say that one philosophy ruling all takes us to a place we don’t want to go.

You mean like “the place” we’ve been for past 6 years “mrjerz”?

A true democracy requires three major viable parties – and we’re down to two – the corrupt to the core republicans and the dysfunctional democrats!

God help America!

The way I see it, JLA, is that we’re not at our worst place yet. Sure, people unable or unwilling to separate deeds and actions from party participation probably hate that Republicans controlled both houses and the presidency since 2000, but that only BEGAN the trip down the tracks. With a huge backlash what we’ll get is another time period where we move in a direction that takes us to another place we don’t like.

It’s not about party identification. It is about philosophy and naivete. If you’re willing to believe that by electing only one party’s candidates and pay little to no attention to what you actually believed before they told you what to believe, then you’re a contributing factor. Trust me. I was one of those people and have learned from my mistakes. I hope you guys can all see them before you make them.

Good luck on the third party thing.

Mr. Jerz -

Mistakes like not voting in elections? Are you actually saying you will be committed to participating in the process in the future?

Um, what? What I’m saying is that I’ve voted party line several times. No matter which party that is, it’s a mistake if you’re thinking for yourself. If you mean that I’ve missed elections, and as I think about it, I can’t remember if I have or not, my response would be that I’m far more committed to any and all of the issues affecting the political process than I ever have been. If I did miss one recently, it would have been before you were out of junior high.

According the public voting records – you’ve missed two general elections since 2002. I was out of middle school by 1999. If this doesn’t sound right, you might want to check with the registrar of voters.

Bad form, UpNorth, to go checking on me when you aren’t even brave enough to use a name. I did miss that (general and primary) election. There’s a good, long story. Email me and I’ll tell you. Gotchas on 5-year-old maybe issues on one guy make you look more useless than I previously thought. And that’s really, really useless.

The latest missed election appears to be the general in 2006.

I just re-read what you wrote. There have been only two generals since 2002 and I voted in both. Either you don’t know my name, mrjerz, or you aren’t very good with numbers. that’s bad for an econ dork. I did, however, miss both 2002 possibilities. I’m not sure I get where you’re going. I have nothing to hide. Do you?

Sorry, Myrna, for this thread’s ridiculous verring to UpNorth’s idiocy. I still would love someone to respond to the question I raised about, you know, the post this thread is based upon.

Get off it nvupnorth!

This is the lowest I’ve ever seen someone stoop to; or stooge to as the case may be.

Texex –

Having some time to think about it, you’re right. It doesn’t happen often but this time it has. Rather than attack Mr. Jerz for his somewhat dismal participation in the past, I should applaud him for his interest and insight now.

Mr. Jerz – I should not have attacked you for your somewhat dismal participation in the past but applaud you for your interest and insight now. I apologize.
If you really think you voted in this past general election(2006) you should email me because the record doesn’t show it so either the record is wrong or your vote was counted. Either way, it is an issue that should be looked into.

What kind of apology is that?

I thought I’d never say this, but Texex is right. It’s not even a bottom of the barrel attack, it is underneath the barrel.

Besides the obvious question of how a persons voting record is germane to the comment thread, there’s a much bigger one.

What in the hell were you doing looking up his voter record in the first place? For a guy constantly whining aout GOP dirty tricks, this one is straight out of Tricky Dick’s playbook.

Congrats Upnorth, you’re a crook.

UpNorth, look again. Or stop lying. I did call – before you told me to, and asked. The only general I have ever missed in my time as a voter (beginning in 1996) was 2002. I also asked how someone might get that information. I was told you had to either go to the registrar’s office or ask for it, and only parties did that. So, either you took the time to go down to the registrar’s office to look me up or you used documents obtained by the party to look me up. Is it officially party business to check up on bloggers now? How very The Party of you. Trying to make stalking a funny thing is ridiculous. You won’t answer me on your own site, or mine, so you throw your attacks of me out at Myrna’s. If I was, say, texex, and didn’t have a blog, I’d understand. But my name, email, and a place for anyone to comment are freely available to you. I don’t even care that it’s low, but it is something that should certainly be looked at by party officials. If anyone knows who you are, be scared. It’s not like I’m afraid to call you out for being a stalker and downright pile of crap for getting that personal.

wtf business is of yours how anybody votes, upurassnorth! Jerz you owe NOBODY any explanations EVER. This is so stalinist it would be pathetic if it weren’t so sick!

nvupurassnorth – readers on the gleaner are now aware of your s*&t. You are a sick disgrace to bloggers!

Mr Jerz -

I sincerely apologize and will look into why my source was incorrct – once I find an answer I will let everyone know.

No body cares, like no one really cares about swim team matches either; but then again, I am bitter tonight because of a 3-point machine from Oregon.

Oh and Texex, since Vegas didn’t make the most dangerous cities list; guess which part of the state put us over the top….

Go Ducks… they even managed to cover the spread.

Too bad USC choked, I was enjoying the Pac-10 run there for a bit.

Official apology here

Gee whiz guys–look what happens when I leave the blog for a whole day.

Jerz, I was going to say that Pew uses excellent survey methodology–they are the best in the business and always publish it if you have specific questions about how they gathered their data.

Kid – it WASN’T Minden-Gardnerville!

Hey Myrna,

I don’t doubt that. But I think it’s fair to question any self-identification surveys. I’m working on one now, and there are obvious flaws. The biggest I see on the surface of that study above is that in ’04 there is a big gap in favor of Dems, but Repubs won the White House, gained in the Senate, and won the House. It’s superficial, maybe, but demonstrates that self-identification stuff can be very unreliable.

I guess ever since random acts of cow tipping have been taken out of the selection criteria, it WASN’T. Either way, another bad list and finger pointing down south doesn’t help the problem.

Oh, and good morning Texex, I can always count on you for Saturday morning fun

Jerz, when I did my graduate research, I found that cognitive conservatism (the tendency to seek out and relay information that conforms to the existing self-concept, and ignoring information that contradicts it) can be overcome by inserting more behavior based questions into the research methodology. Meaning, that past behaviors are more reliable measurements than an individual’s cognitive process which protects the self-concept.

But it has been years since I actually thought this hard, my brain hurts, and I need a bloody mary…good luck with your research.

I think the key to this research is that they have longitudinal data. You are right about self-identifying data, but that they have it over time in trends makes it more meaningful.

I think the elections of 2002 and 2004 can greatly be explained by 9/11 and the republican party’s ability to leverage that insecurity felt throughout the country into wins. And of course, technically, Gore won in 2000, but the margin was certainly not what it should have been–thats why we ended up with the recount fiasco.

Also, in the study, they are careful to point it that its more of a republican loss than a democratic gain–in other words, most because people are saying they lean democratic, democratic candidates have had a hard time capitalizing on that.

What’s the name of that big hole in the mountain in CO where they used to monitor US defenses?

It’s shut down now and would be a helluva lot better than Yucca. Think of the rail miles saved getting there in the central US. And the place has to be hyper safe from terrorists.

But what the heck is it’s name?

I believe that was Shiane Mountain…made famous in the movie War Games.

Cheyenne Mountain sorry and the base was called NORAD.

….Florida election was stolen and shut down before there could be a statewide recount (and then Gore lost 5-4 to Bush, who did not have standing to even bring a case to the USSCT!!!).
In Ohio in 2004, Tom Noe’s wife (he famous for coingate and money laundering for R Party-and where Krolicki raised thousands of dollars for his failed run for US Senate), ignored Diabold’s instructions to make repairs to her County’s machines. And, there were other Ohio issues and look, Kerry losses Ohio and presidency in 2004. (Robert Kennedy jr. did a great expose on Ohio 2004 that was published in the magazine Rolling Stone)

Interestingly, Rove’s name is now popping up in elction machine irregularities allegations in Mexico where the rightist candidate for preseident beat the leftist candidate by .05%

I hope others join me in encouraging nvupnorth to continue
blogging (with his head held high).
He does a good job of it and has
corrected an error not only in a timely manner, but in a manly manner. The piling on, btw, and calling him names is a seperate error, imo.

I read “The Emerging Democratic Majority” [http://tinyurl.com/2aufpz Amazon] a few years ago when it all seemed completely hopeless, mostly due to voting irregularities and felon purge lists. By ‘o4 I was referring to Bush as Humpty-Dumpty on a couple of my Web sites. Luckily that was prescient.

As a Green Party member from 1996 until two weeks ago, I’ve always said, by 2010 EVERYONE will be a Green. Hopefully Green will just be another name for Democrats.

There’s another potential “vehicle” emerging, one that I got reminded of again this am while listening to MSNBC cover speculation of a possible Bloomberg run for the Presidency as an Independent (unaffliated with any party).

Given the fact that “non-partisan” seems to be the fastest growing group of voters, the market is there for Independents (who can muster the resources to get on the ballot).

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